Nigeria has not captured 20% GDP

Yemi Kale - Statistician_General

Since the 2014 rebasing of the Nigerian economy, the debate still rages on which, between Nigeria and South Africa, is Africa’s largest economy. But, the Statistician General of the Federation, Yemi Kale, told PREMIUM TIMES’ Business Editor, Bassey Udo, in the second and concluding part of the exclusive interview that Nigeria will emerge as the indisputable leader when the bureau completes a vital business, industries and agricultural census it is planning to capture about 20 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product not taken into account during the last rebasing exercise. Excerpts:

PT: From all indications, electronic data gathering is the best way to go in capturing data. Is the NBS considering going this way any time soon?

KALE: The NBS does a combination of electronic and manual. But, let us not deceive ourselves, there are some places in Nigeria, like the rural areas, that nobody sends the NBS email on anything.

If we send email to them, they won’t answer. We use a variety of ways to get there. We are not yet on that level where, if we ask a question, someone would understand and answer you.

Even in urban areas, if the NBS sends questions about certain issues, they will not answer. They will think it’s a kind of 419 or something.

But, if an NBS staff, with his identity card, is in front of the respondent, and explains to him the objective of the survey, and assures him the information would be treated as confidential, he is likely to have more confidence to talk to him.

The next time the staff goes again for a similar information, he would be more confident. But, as people become more educated and enlightened, it would become easier.

Before now, we were using paper questionnaires. We have now moved significantly, from 100 per cent paper survey to 50:50 paper, electronic. Most of our surveys are now done using one small tablet – computer assisted personnel interview (CAPI) devices. This makes things faster and easier.

When you don’t have money, one has to think of ways to make things easier. The data we produce is for policy makers, ministries, departments and government as well as private sector.

Initially, we used to print the big volume 1,000 page e-book. With that, we could produce only 100 copies.

Then, we said instead of using N4 million to print a book nobody would see, we should use the money to revamp our website and upload the publication. It is getting to more people. This is one way to cut cost.

With CAPI we do not have to produce and circulate thousands of questionnaires for staff to administer, go back later to collect, send it back to the headquarters through courier, hire people to sort out and key in the answers, with all possibility of errors.

Now, with the CAPI devices, programmers convert the questionnaires into electronic form. If it is CPI (consumer price index), the appropriate questionnaire would come up, and the staff would go to the field to fill it with the information, and it will go straight to the data base. It makes things faster and errors eliminated.

In addition, we do statistical auditing, by picking randomly selected respondents to verify if indeed they spoke with our staff. But, we have challenges in inflation statistics. Unlike the U.S. where the prices of items are displayed, in Nigeria the price for an item can vary, depending on who one is asking.

PT: In view of all these challenges, how reliable are the data from the NBS?

KALE: Don’t get me wrong. When I highlighted some of the challenges we face, I also indicated the ways we try to overcome them. I believe our data are as reliable as they can be. Given the state of our economy and level of our development, I don’t think they could be better. There are a lot of indicators we choose not to publish, if we feel they are not credible.

Some data on trade sometimes fall into this category. If the Nigerian Customs says certain volumes of goods were imported from the U.S., we will cross-check with the U.S. export agency if that item came to Nigeria.

If the difference is very big, then we know the data is very wrong. If people doubt our data, we invite them to join us in the field, to watch how the data were gathered and how the numbers were gotten.

PT: If you were to do a report on your first tenure, how would that look like?

KALE: I’m usually not very good at talking about myself. It makes one lose focus.

PT: In that case, try to talk about the office and the targets you set to achieve. Did you meet or surpass them?

KALE: I’m very critical of myself. I always set very high targets for myself.

PT: Then go ahead and criticise and appraise those high targets?

KALE: When I started I had goals, of course. I must confess, I did not attain most of them, as much as I intended. Somebody said they were too ambitious. Maybe I came without fully understanding the system I was inheriting.

Perhaps, I had set goals based on nothing really. The person had said that after one or two years, we will realise the problem with funding, data collection, acceptance of data, and even attitude by staff, who are used to a particular system of doing things.

When one was coming in, one did not think about all these things. All that mattered were what to do, assuming all the money would be there, all the support and cooperation. All I can say categorically is that my first tenure improved the production and use of data in Nigeria. Have we gotten to the level one would have hoped after five years? No! I did not meet my target. That’s actually the main reason I changed my mind to do a second term.

Initially, I said I was not really interested. I changed my mind, because I was reminded I had to complete what I started; I had to take the bureau where I had wanted it to be.

But, I wasn’t able to produce the amount of data I had wanted to produce. In line with my mandate, the use of data has increased, but has not reached a level I wanted.

I wanted a situation where, before any policy is introduced, the proper data driven analysis of its cost-benefit would be published. We are not doing that yet.

I wanted a situation where the level of professionalism among my staff would get to the highest standard, in terms of quality of thinking and mentality, where everybody does not think like the historical public servant. I did not achieve that.

I wanted a very well integrated relationship between my office and the media; where we will interact and the quality of analysis in the media will be very high. I did not get there, because I had wanted to do a couple of media trainings, so that journalists can understand how to interpret data and numbers.

There were a few of these that we did not achieve. There are still some issues with methodology. I wanted to complete the census on agriculture.  There were five major activities.

One was the rebasing of the economy. I completed that. I wanted to do the controversial poverty statistics. I wasn’t the one that gathered the data. I just finished it. When it came in, they had already finished the work.

But, I did not like the numbers, and could not even defend it. I wanted to complete the one I was 100 per cent confident about. I could not do that in my first term. I hope I will be able to do that in my second. We are going to start next year.

There is also a census of business and industries, which has not been done for about 30 years.

We want to go round the country to map out every business, from “Mama put” to printing and every business that has a physical location, so that government can know where every single business is, and if government wants to support vulcanizers, it would know where the vulcanizers are. I did not get to do that in my first term. It’s very expensive.

There is also the agricultural census. We have very limited information, because it has not be done in 30 years. I want to go round all farmlands in Nigeria, whether it is crop or fishery, to have them properly mapped, with their locations and everything.

We will now have a map showing locations where certain crops could grow. With the information about what has been produced from every farmland in the country, one would be able to advice a man growing corn in a particular location that it is good for wheat.

If that man is told to change the farm product to wheat to triple his yield, he will listen to you. It will also help government in the allocation of farm inputs like fertilizer, because it would easily know where fertilizer is required. It will help have a more targeted government policy. I was not able to complete that in my first term.

Again, there are a few methodology and improvement of data I wanted to work on. On the whole, we made quite a lot of progress. I will score myself about 60 per cent.

PT: Following the rebasing, the Nigerian economy was said to be bigger than South Africa’s. Even without business, industries and agricultural census you are planning.

KALE: With that census, we will be enable to capture these small businesses. I think there are still about 10-20 per cent of our GDP we can’t capture, because of these hawkers that move about. I expect that Nigeria’s GDP is slightly more than South Africa’s. We try to do a formal sector study that would enable us capture that. I don’t think it is comprehensive enough.

I think we are still missing some few trillions of Naira here and there. The only way we can capture them is to expand our household survey. Many of these hawkers and small businesses are usually family businesses. The way we capture them is to go to their houses.

The problem is always that we do not have enough hands to cover everywhere. We just take a small representative sample. Ninety per cent of our problem is funding.

My predecessors got about N3 billion for data, and I was given N700 million last year, and I am producing a lot more data with less money.

PT: From what you are saying, what Kind of statistical system would you want to leave behind at the end of your second term?

KALE: I want to leave behind a world class statistics office that is electronically driven; where at least 80 per cent of any data anybody wants in Nigeria would be got at the touch of a button.

Administrative data collection from the MDAs. That’s another area I was not able to achieve. As overall coordinator of data, I want to connect all the MDAs electronically, where our staff are posted there and they are generating data.

I want to ensure that anytime anyone goes to the hospital, as the person’s name is entered into the system, the information about his drugs and other people who came to the hospital, would be made available instantly.

With the touch of a button, one would be able to have all the information about the number of people who were treated of malaria or any other sickness in the hospital on that day online real time.

Also, the NBS as I said earlier, should be able to do the impact assessment of government policies.

If government wants to increase tax, the NBS should be able to analyze and say if the increase is for five percent, this is how it would impact on people’s income, up or down.

Would it generate more revenue for government or not? Otherwise, if that policy is thrown out without that analysis, one would find out that it would not generate the revenue. It will just put people under undue pressure, and at the end of the day it will not be cost-effective.

We want a situation where every government policy is first defended by data. Every time the budget is to be presented, I want to be sure there is statistical information to back up government decision to put more money into the health sector and not education, and so on.

I want to see an evidence based decision-making process backed by data from the NBS. If government increases the price of petrol by N5, there would be the numbers to back what the impact would be on the people and their income.

Culled from Premium Times